Boston’s Jayson Tatum drives to the basket past LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers. Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

It was inevitable – sigh – that the immediate aftermath of LeBron James’ recent breaking of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s NBA career scoring record was a rewarming of the entirely unsolvable debate about who deserves the title of basketball’s best.

The talking heads tore into the refreshed debate, rehashing their cases for Jabbar, Michael Jordan (my personal favorite), James or other wild-card candidates.

My immediate thoughts went elsewhere, in the opposite direction. More toward the future than rehashing the past. Will anyone catch James and his 38,388 (and counting) points?

The easy answer, of course, is no.

“It’s always a possibility, but it’s going to be really tough,” Mavericks star Luka Doncic (8,500-plus points and counting through five seasons) told reporters in Dallas. “A guy who plays for 20 years, in that shape, how he holds up his body. Outside of the basketball skills, it’s very hard to hold up the body. If you’re saying me, there’s no way, because I’m not playing that much.”

Here’s a candidate to consider. Jayson Tatum.

Advertisement

Bookmark this column for a decade down the road. Let’s see if it holds up then. Until then, all we can do is look at the numbers and wonder, and some of Tatum’s numbers produced during his emergence as a Celtics superstar could surprise you.

James, 38, debuted during the 2003-04 season at age 19. He went straight from high school to the pros. Tatum spent one season in college, at Duke, as required by the NBA, but also made his NBA debut as a 19-year-old rookie in the 2017-18 season. If you’re going to own the career scoring record, you better get an early start. Both did.

James is in his 20th season. He’s never missed a season and plans on playing multiple more seasons. Remarkable longevity, plus an amazing workload. James has played in 90 percent or more of his team’s games 14 times during a marathon career that is still in progress. Tatum, 24, is on track to play 90-plus percent of his games for the sixth time in six seasons.

You can’t score if you’re not on the floor. James was during his prime. Tatum is following in those footsteps. Injuries and games missed will stop Kevin Durant and plenty of others from challenging James. You can’t predict the future, but Tatum has been mostly healthy and tough to keep off the court when he doesn’t feel great.

Between his age-19 rookie debut and the end of his sixth season, James was a five-time All-Star. Tatum has been an All-Star in his last four seasons. James won his first of four NBA MVPs in his sixth season. Tatum squarely is in the mix to win his first this season. James had amassed a total of 12,993 points in his first six seasons. Tatum could hit 10,000 if his current season scoring average (30.6 points per game) holds through the end of the regular season.

So, yes, James has a big and perhaps uncatchable head start. And he’s not done adding to his total. But there are a couple more factors to consider.

Advertisement

It took James just three seasons to reach his career-best scoring average for a single season, as he poured in an absurd 31.4 points per game during his age-21 season (2005-06). He averaged 30 points per game two seasons later. He has returned to averaging 30 points per game in his final two seasons, a remarkable feat at ages 37 and 38. But he’s never averaged more than that 31.4.

Tatum’s per-game scoring average has grown every single season he’s been in the league, starting with 13.9 points per game as a rookie, all the way up to 30.8 points per game this season, a pace that has him leading the league in points scored. He had 41 Friday in Boston’s 127-116 victory over Charlotte.

Tatum’s next season taking a step back in scoring average will be his first. It’s impossible for him to keep growing this stat in a linear fashion, but it’s also quite possible he hasn’t even reached his peak scoring potential just yet, as crazy as that sounds.

One more thing.

Three points are worth more than two. The basic math helped James pass Kareem. And it could help Tatum, too.

James has made more than 2,000 3-pointers during his remarkable run. You know how many Kareem made? One. Yes, just one. He was in his 10th season when the 3-pointer was introduced to the NBA. He only attempted 18 total. And just one went in.

Advertisement

Now, everyone shoots 3s, and Tatum, it should be noted in this discussion, shoots them better than James. It could help him gain ground on James and distance himself from another projected James challenger, primarily two-point-scoring Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo (15,744 points in 10 seasons and counting).

James during his career has netted 34.4 percent of his 3-pointers. He peaked at 40.6 percent from deep during the 2012-13 season and never finished a season above 38 percent before or after. He has averaged 4.6 3-point attempts per game during his career, never averaging more than 8 attempts per game for a season.

Tatum is shooting 37.8 percent from 3-point territory through the first six seasons of his impressive young career. He’s never shot worse than 35 percent from deep in a season. And his number of 3-pointers taken are on the rise, up from an average of three attempted per game as a rookie, to an average of nine-plus attempted per game this season, without a decrease in any of the seasons in between. Little numbers add up big over marathon careers. Tatum’s 3-point prowess will make him a faster climber than many on the all-time scoring chart.

If Tatum stays healthy, stays playing, stays growing his game season by season until age really starts to sink its teeth into his body of work, he could make things more interesting than most realize today.

Let’s revisit this conversation in 2033.

Comments are no longer available on this story