As a public service I begin this column by quoting an e-mail received from an old friend who was stationed in mosquito-rich French Guiana during his time in the Foreign Legion:

“In the Legion, we took cloroquine phosphate 6/7 days to prevent malaria. Didn’t always work. When we got it, we took a heavier dose to cure it. In large doses it was fatal. Knew some guys who suicided by ingesting a hand full. It did on average raise, healthy young men’s, heart rate by 10 beats per minute, and could affect eye sight. Both were monitored on a regular basis.”

This is relevant because a number of specialists were proposing an investigation of chrloroquine and hydroxychloroquine as treatment for the Wuhan virus back in March. President Trump picked up on those proposals and was immediately condemned by the Muddy Stream Media and a few state governors.

An Arizona woman named Wanda told NBC News that, following medical advice Trump had relayed in a press conference, she and her husband, Gary, took fish tank cleaner. Serious mistake. Gary dies shortly after. Wanda blames the president. Progressives everywhere were pleased to hear this – always glad to have a new harpoon to heave at the Great Orange Whale.

Wanda’s harpoon has since been blunted for use as evidence of the president’s incompetence and general horribleness. A number of scientists are now arguing that those chemicals may indeed act against the corona virus. In France Didier Raoult, head of the Méditerranée Infection Foundation has received a lot of attention promoting the old malaria drug as a potential cure for the corona virus.

Raoult has glittering credentials but some of his fellow virologists are skeptical. But, since no alternative has appeared there is an international run on pharmacies globally as people have started stocking up on the low-priced generic drug. Inevitably, President Trump tweeted that the drug had a “real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine.” His health adviser, Anthony Fauci, promptly warned against building hopes on “anecdotal evidence”.

My undergraduate history of unrelieved disgrace in a variety of science classes disqualifies me from making medical advice, but I have admit to feeling that the Trump Tower Gargoyle’s validation test is “does it please me.” His enthusiasm induces skepticism. When he describes something as “one of the biggest game changers in medical history” I have to ask myself what does this man know about medical history?

Now a positive subject, here’s the recipe and procedure for the “corpse reviver,” a cocktail created during the Spanish Influenza. Combine 2 oz of cognac, with 1 oz Calvados or bourbon and 1 oz sweet vermouth. Stir with ice until very cold and strain into a chilled cocktail glass. If you don’t have cognac, Calvados, sweet vermouth, or cocktail glasses you might try chugging gin, rum or rye out of a bottle. Might work.

Back to grimmer subjects. If you want an estimate about the number of Americans who will be infected by the Godzilla virus a study by Imperial College London assumes, in the absence of social distancing, 81% of the American population will become infected and 2,200,000 will die it. A professor at Harvard’s School of Public Health predicts an infection rate 20% to 60% of Americans (51,000,000 to 152,000,000). A fatality rate of 1% will yield 510,000 to 1,500,000 customers for the mortuary trades. The researchers for the non-profit Resolve to Save Lives organization have produced estimates range from 3,270 deaths to 1.600,000. Not very useful.

Here again, the international estimates for the Spanish Influenza epidemic of 1918-1919: 500,000.000 infected, 50,000,000 dead. It came and killed and then it died. It was never “cured.”

Maybe some expert somewhere has come up with comparable members. Haven’t heard of any yet. That great British Conservative prime minister, Lord Salisbury, once advised citizens against blind faith in experts. Generals always want a bigger army, bishops always want more pews, and doctors always want more hospitals. It’s up to the inexpert to put limits on their wishes and ambitions. This was true back in the late nineteenth century. It’s true today and will continue to be true into the distant future. It’s important to remember the track record of experts in science, economics, in politics, and in the novel “profession” of futurology. Their prophetical record is dismal.

Businessmen pay economists lavish salaries and fees for predictions that turn out way, way off the mark. Stock market corrections, housing booms, new technological effect are, nevertheless, always catching businessmen by surprise. How many political strategists anticipated the election of Donald Trump? Now that the minutes of the 2006 Federal Reserve Board have been published we know that showed no anxiety in anticipation of the 2008 “crash.” When President Reagan predicted that the Soviet Union was doomed to end in the ash dump of history whole posses of academic experts popped up to belittle him. A few years later the USSR collapsed.

Let’s notice finally that Sweden’s prevailing experts have advised against quarantines. That country’s borders remain open. Its schools are still gathering in their students. Its streets remain thronging. Businesses operate a usual. The only restrictions so far are limits of 50 people for meetings and a regulation authorizing restaurant service only for patrons who are seated. Otherwise the government has confined itself to asking its citizens to behave prudently.

Some Swedes have been infected, some have died, some experts are urging restrictions and warn of disaster. The government’s rationale is two-fold. It relies on habitual Swedish prudence and it believes in the immunizing the population by allowing them to suffer and recover. It would be a good thing if Sweden persists. It is the only available test of the benefits of a laissez faire policy.

John Frary of Farmington, the GOP candidate for U.S. Congress in 2008, is a retired history professor, an emeritus Board Member of Maine Taxpayers United, a Maine Citizen’s Coalition Board member, and publisher of FraryHomeCompanion.com. He can be reached at jfrary8070@aol.com.