If in the end it’s all about money, Carol Palesky’s tax-cap proposal could buy its way into the hearts of voters.

Consider this: Under Palesky, someone who built or bought a home in Lewiston valued at $150,000 in 2003 would save $1,165 in property taxes.

Put the same house in Auburn. Tax savings: $1,341.

In Brunswick, save $830.

The downside: Maine’s cities and towns would lose more than a half-billion dollars in revenue yearly, money used to pay for services and the people who provide them.

The figures come from some hard number-crunching by a team of experts that includes professors, researchers, economists and scientists. Together they produced a 53-page report, complete with charts, for the Margaret Chase Smith Center of Public Policy and the Department of Resource Economics and Policy of the University of Maine. Their findings were made public Tuesday.

Among them: In 15 of Maine’s largest cities, taxpayers will see a drop in their property taxes if Question 1 – a 1 percent tax limit on real and personal property – is approved by Maine voters on Election Day. Using the $150,000 home and 2003 as benchmarks, the savings vary from a high of $2,164 in Waterville to a low of $62 in Scarborough, according to the analysis.

In none of the cities, however, does the property tax rate actually fall to 1 percent. That’s because the proposal allows for a higher rate to accommodate voter-approved municipal debt, the report states.

In Lewiston, the rate would be 1.41 percent, a 35.5 percent drop, report authors concluded. Auburn’s property tax rate would fall 44 percent, to 1.13 percent, while Brunswick’s rate would come out at 1.1 percent, a 33.4 percent decline.

The reduced tax rates, notes the study, would result in the loss of millions of dollars to pay for municipal services.

Using 2003 figures, Lewiston’s annual tax collections would fall from $38.9 million to $20.4 million under the tax cap, a drop of $18.5 million. That number is in line with an analysis conducted by Lewiston City Manager Jim Bennett, who has estimated an annual reduction in tax collections of $25 million based on 2004-2005 budget figures.

Auburn’s local tax revenues would fall from $35.6 million to $14.5 million, using 2003 figures, if Question 1 is approved, according to the report – a $21.1 million drop.

Brunswick would lose nearly half of its local funding, falling from $24.9 million in 2003 to $12.9 million, a $12 million reduction.

In all, Maine’s cities and towns would have collected $687.7 million less in 2003 under the proposed tax cap.

For the state to bail out the municipalities fully, and maintain service levels, it would have to raise the income tax rate by 64.2 percent, the report stated. That’s about $652 more in income taxes for a family with an income between $35,650 and $45,124.

Another alternative: Raise sales and use taxes instead, by 80.22 percent, pushing the state’s sales tax from 5 percent to just over 9 percent, according to the analysis.

There’s another side to the Palesky proposal, study authors note.

In 81 municipalities, mostly smaller towns and plantations with property tax rates already under 1 percent, homeowners could end up paying more under the measure, depending on when a house was built or purchased.

The report makes that conclusion based on the effects of rolling back property values to 1996 figures, as required by the Palesky proposal. The state’s Supreme Judicial Court has issued an advisory ruling saying such a rollback would probably be unconstitutional.

Using the $150,000 and 2003 benchmarks that the authors reference throughout the report, a Carrabassett Valley resident would pay $312 more annually in property taxes than they do now. In Harpswell, the figure climbs to $515. In Newry, it’s $243, while in Lovell it’s $78.

Those towns and others considered resort communities, with significant second-home appeal, would also need to offset tax dollars lost because of the law’s effect on out-of-state vacation homeowners. While specific figures weren’t included in the study, the “bottom line,” the report states, is that “Maine municipalities would lose $50.9 million, or 31.9 percent, of the property taxes paid by vacation homeowners under the property tax cap.”